It is appropriate the playoff duel between the Cavaliers and Orlando Magic will begin with a jump ball, because a breakdown of how the two teams match up shows this could truly be a toss up.
In fact, NBA.com is predicting the series will go seven games and that the Magic will win it. That would mean ousting the Cavaliers at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, just as the Knicks did in five games last year. The series begins at 1 p.m. April 20 at the FieldHouse.
The Cavaliers finished fourth in the Eastern Conference with a record of 48-34. The Magic finished fifth at 47-35. The Cavs and Magic split their four-game series this season. Each team won once at home and once on the road.
Both teams take pride in the way they defend. The Magic ranked fourth in the regular season, allowing an average of 108.44 points a game. The Cavaliers were seventh, allowing an average of 110.22 points.
The Cavaliers were 14-0 when they held opponents under 100 points. The Magic held opponents under 100 points 23 times. They were 21-2 in those games.
The Cavaliers have a rebounding edge, albeit a slight one — 43.28 compared to 42.30. Orlando, however, enjoys a better rebound margin per game — plus 2.45 compared to 0.61 for the Cavaliers. The gap in those numbers suggest the Magic will be more aggressive going for rebounds in the paint.
The two teams are close offensively, too. The Cavaliers averaged 112.6 points per game in 2023-24. The Magic were four rungs below Cleveland on the scoring ladder at 110.5 points a game.
The Cavaliers failed to score 100 points 10 times in 2023-24. They were 1-9 when that happened. The Magic were 2-12 when they failed to reach triple digits in scoring.
The Cavaliers attempted the eighth-most 3-pointers per game at 36.8. Only the defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets at 31.2 attempted fewer than the Magic’s 31.3 3s a game. The disparity is comparatively big in 3-pointers made. The Cavs were seventh in the league with 13.5 a game. The Magic were dead last at 11.0. But even those numbers indicate each game could come down to which team plays best in the final two minutes.
“We have to do a great job on their two big guns,” Coach J.B. Bickerstaff said after a practice at Cleveland Clinic Courts in Independence. “(Franz) Wagner and (Paolo) Banchero, we have to do the job of making their lives miserable.
“We have to make them earn everything. We have to keep them off the foul line and make sure one of those guys doesn’t have a huge night.”
Wagner, Banchero, Jalen Suggs, Gary Harris and Wendell Carter Jr. start for the Magic.
Suggs, a 6-foot-5 guard, averaged 12.6 points a game in the regular season but just 6.3 points a game against the Cavaliers. Wagner averaged 19.7 points a game over 72 games and 15 vs. the Cavs. Banchero is right around his scoring average — 22.6 points a game in the regular season and 23 points a game vs. the Cavs.
Cavaliers point guard Darius Garland averaged 18 points a game over 57 regular-season games. He averaged 26.7 points in three games against the Magic. Center Jarrett Allen, on the other hand, has not been at his best when playing the Magic. His average dipped from 16.5 points a game for the season to 11 a game vs. Orlando. His rebounds dipped only slightly, down from 10.5 to 9.8.
Donovan Mitchell averaged 27.3 points in three games vs. Orlando, which aligns with his 26.6 points per game average.
Injuries limited Evan Mobley to two games against Orlando. He averaged 11 points and 6.5 rebounds. The Cavs would like him to be more assertive. He averaged 15.7 points and 9.4 rebounds in 50 regular-season games.
The series could come down to which team gets more from its bench players.
The Cavaliers have dealt with health issues all season. Dean Wade, who has battled a knee injury since early March, will not play in the series opener, Bickerstaff said. Backup guard Kevin Porter Jr. sprained his ankle in the final game of the regular season and is on crutches.
Sam Merrill, who missed the last three games with a sore neck, returned to practice on April 17, so he’ll be ready to go. He averages eight points a game and is not shy about shooting from beyond the arc. He averages 17.5 minutes a game and 5.8 three-point attempts per game.
The Cavaliers also have Caris LeVert (14 points a game), Georges Niang (9.4 points) and Isaac Okoro (9.4 points) off the bench. Okoro will be tasked with defending Orlando’s best shooter. Naturally, Bickerstaff won’t say which player Okoro will be guarding.
“They have a really good bench,” Bickerstaff said. “We saw that with Mo Wagner last time we played them here. Cole Anthony and those guys can put up numbers coming off the bench. So stopping a role player have an X-factor type of game (is important).”
The Magic beat the Cavaliers, 116-109, on Feb. 22 at the FieldHouse. Mitchell missed the game with a knee injury, which forced Bickerstaff to start Max Strus at guard along with Garland and Okoro at forward along with Mobley. Allen started at center for the Cavs.
The Orlando bench outscored Cleveland’s bench, 63-24, in the Feb. 22 game. Orlando backup center Moritz “Mo” Wagner scored 22 points in 25 minutes. Anthony scored 13 points and Joe Ingles added 12.
Wade was tasked with defending the 6-foot-11 Mo Wagner in the Feb. 22 game because Cavs backup center Triston Thompson was in the midst of serving his 25-game suspension for using performance enhancing drugs.
Thompson is back, and so is Mitchell, which means Bickerstaff can use Okoro as a substitute and Thompson on Mo Wagner.
The Cavaliers’ bench will be stronger for the playoff series than it was in the final regular-season matchup with the Magic.
